In this episode, I speak with Joe Kent about the emerging US-Iran deal, the growing efforts to undermine it, and the lengths Israel may be willing to go to prevent a return to diplomacy. We examine the strategic logic behind Israel’s position, the divisions inside Washington, the future of Iran’s regime, and why the battle over the deal may be entering a new phase rather than coming to an end.

Joe Kent is a former Green Beret, intelligence officer, and former congressional candidate. He served multiple combat deployments and has become a prominent voice on US foreign policy, national security, and America’s role in conflicts across the Middle East and beyond.

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Ian Bremmer — founder of Eurasia Group, the world’s leading geopolitical risk analyst — in an exclusive interview on Trump’s Iran deal just gave the most precise diagnosis of this presidency I’ve heard.

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Genius-level political instincts. Catastrophic policy incompetence. Authoritarian impulses. Personal klepto…

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An Apache is down, Bahrain is under attack for the first time in this conflict, and Trump is reportedly considering re-initiating a full extended war campaign. Here’s what I think is actually happening.

What happened

• A US Apache helicopter was downed over the Strait of Hormuz with two service members in an extremely precarious situation

• The US responded with what CENTCOM called proportionate self-defensive strikes — but the response wasn’t anywhere near proportionate to losing a helicopter with crew

• Iran escalated sharply: striking a base in Jordan and — most significantly — hitting Bahrain, which had largely escaped the conflict until now •

• Trump tweeted “Praise be to Allah,” declared talks had taken too long, and Reuters and Al Jazeera are citing officials saying he is considering re-initiating a full war campaign

• A Palau-flagged oil tanker has suffered an explosion near the Strait of Hormuz, likely from US missile strikes as part of blockade operations

What concerns me

Trump has now tweeted “Praise be to Allah” twice. The first time, significant military action followed shortly after.

That may be coincidence. It may not be.

But paired with reports of a renewed war campaign and Iran widening its target set to Bahrain — a country that has stayed largely out of the firing line until now — this feels qualitatively different from recent weeks.

The core question isn’t whether Trump will strike again. He will. It’s whether any of it changes Iran’s actual defensive capability.

Seventy-six days of bombardment and Iran still has 75% of its missile launchers and 70% of its pre-war ballistic missile stockpile intact. More bombs will not produce a different result.

What happens next

Watch Bahrain.

If Iran is now treating Gulf states as legitimate escalation targets rather than collateral pressure points, the regional calculus changes completely. The Gulf states have been quietly hoping to stay out of this.

That option may be closing.

Is this the moment the ceasefire collapses for good — or does Trump blink again before it gets worse?

He just returned from the Black Sea Security Forum in Odessa - and this conversation is as close to the ground truth as you’ll get.

What we covered

• Why the momentum has shifted decisively toward Ukraine — and what Kelly saw on the ground in Odessa

• How Ukraine, without a significant naval force, has effectively pushed Russia out of the Black Sea entirely

• Ukraine’s growing capability to strike deep into Russia

• The brutal reality for Russian forces: 35,000 losses a month, undertrained replacements, bodies left uncollected

• What the West should be doing right now - F-16 upgrades, Tomahawk missiles, and why the Iran war has complicated everything

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The moment that stuck with me

Kelly was in a bunker in Odessa during a Russian drone attack. Forty-eight hours after he left, the Russians hit it.

That’s not a statistic — that’s what Ukrainian civilians live with every single day.

And yet every Ukrainian he spoke to felt more positive about the future than at any point since the war began.

Why it matters

Russia is losing 35,000 troops a month and can’t replace them.

Ukraine is striking St. Petersburg.

The Black Sea is effectively theirs.

Six months ago this looked very different. The momentum is real — and a US Senator just flew in to see it for himself.

Ukraine is advancing, Russia is bleeding, and the Black Sea belongs to Kyiv. How long before Putin has no choice but to negotiate?

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In this emergency livestream, l was joined by two distinguished regional and topical experts:

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We debated who really holds the power, why Trump’s keeps emphasising a peace deal is imminent when it isn’t, and what this all means for the US standing in the Middle East.

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We debated what this could mean and what would be the fallout globally.

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From the lack of strategic plan and military objectives, the US and Israel grossly underestimated Iran’s potential to respond and outlast them.

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But worst still, likely given the IRGC the greatest strategic clarity they couldn’t have imagined.

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We went live with Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute to react and on:

• how Iran has emerged from a war it didn’t start with better deterrence than a nuclear weapon,

• why the Strait of Hormuz is now Tehran’s permanent trump card,

• how China quietly became the indispensable broker Washington can no longer ignore,

• and why this moment may be the definitive end of American hegemony in the Middle East.

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When he talks about Putin's strategic logic, he's not theorising - he's drawing on decades of sitting across the table from the Soviet and subsequent Russian min…

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“This isn’t a peace summit - it’s two rivals testing how far they can push each other before something breaks”

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I've wanted to get him on for a while - and with everything happening right now, the timing couldn’t be better.

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Reform UK’s surge, the Greens’ growing support, Labour’s losses, and the Conservatives’ collapse are not isolated events. They reflect deeper demographic, economic and cultural fractures that have been building since Brexit — and perhaps long before.

In this video, I explore why these results matter far beyond councils and Westminster drama. From Britain’s economic stagnation and regional imbalance to the collapse of trust in traditional politicians, this may represent the beginning of a fundamental political realignment.

But the implications do not stop at domestic politics.

As Britain becomes increasingly fragmented internally, questions are also emerging about the country’s geopolitical coherence, foreign policy direction, the future of the Union, NATO, Scotland, migration, Europe, and Britain’s role in an increasingly unstable world.

00:00 – Why these elections matter
02:15 – Reform, the Greens, and the collapse of the old parties
05:48 – Why Britain voted as it did
08:32 – Economic decline, regional imbalance, and political anger
11:40 – Foreign policy, NATO, Scotland, and Britain’s global role

After 16 years in power, Viktor Orbán has been defeated — and not narrowly. Early results suggest a margin large enough to hand Péter Magyar’s Tisza party a potential two-thirds majority in parliament. For a system widely seen as structurally tilted in Orbán’s favour, this isn’t just a loss. It’s a collapse.

But the significance of this result goes far beyond Hungary.

For over a decade, Orbán positioned his country as a disruptive force inside the European Union — blocking aid to Ukraine, delaying sanctions, and maintaining close ties with Moscow. In doing so, he gave Russia something it rarely has inside Western institutions: leverage.

That leverage may now be gone.

A new government in Budapest is expected to align more closely with Brussels and NATO, potentially unblocking tens of billions in support for Kyiv and restoring cohesion within the EU at a critical moment. In practical terms, that strengthens the West’s hand — and weakens Russia’s ability to shape outcomes from within.

But this isn’t just about geopolitics. It’s about political systems.

Orbán’s Hungary became the most prominent example of “illiberal democracy” in practice — a system that preserved elections while steadily reshaping institutions, media, and the rules of the game. His defeat raises a deeper question: can systems like this actually be reversed through the ballot box?

For now, the answer appears to be yes.

But removing a leader is one thing. Dismantling the system he built is another.

Magyar may have won the election, but what comes next will determine whether this becomes a turning point for Europe… or just a temporary disruption.

The Global Gambit

Stories, Strategy, and the Shady Stuff in Between

By Pyotr Kurzin

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The Global Gambit

Stories, Strategy, and the Shady Stuff in Between

By Pyotr Kurzin

Connect
X: https://twitter.com/PKurzin
Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/pyotrkurzin.bsky.social
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/pyotrsfootprints/

#nato #usa #europe #trump #geopolitics #war