Another Day, Another Coup: What Just Happened in Gabon?

Just a month after a coup in Niger, Gabon in Central Africa has its own. Though there are similarities and differences.

August 30th, 2023 - it was the day that saw the 7th coup in Africa in under 3-years.

But while the others have all occurred in the Sahel Belt, this latest in Gabon, is not.

And in this case, there are similarities and differences, both in motivations and potential implications.

As always its nuanced.

But what is clear, is that we are experiencing a unique time across the continent, and it is by no means the end.

There’ll be plenty of autocrats who’ll be sleeping uneasy tonight.

Now, lets get into it.

Some Context

In a world where democracy and democratic transitions have till recently assumed a global norm, the persistence of coups in Africa has raised questions about the stability and resilience of democratic governance on the continent.

The recent coup in Gabon is yet another alarming episode in this trend.

Gabon, a Central African nation blessed with oil resources, has witnessed an unsettling political drama, with the Bongo dynasty, led by President Ali Bongo, ruling for 56 years.

However, this dynasty's grip on power has been increasingly challenged, leading to internal unrest and political discontent.

Unlike some neighbouring Sahel countries, Gabon hasn't faced the destabilising forces of Islamist insurgencies, but it shares a common thread with its troubled neighbours - a struggle for democratic governance in a region rife with political instability.

The 2023 coup, orchestrated by military officers, was sparked by the controversial presidential election.

On August 26, the electoral commission declared President Ali Bongo the winner of a disputed vote, a decision that immediately raised eyebrows given the lack of international observers, suspension of foreign broadcasts, and a sudden internet blackout.

The country plunged into crisis as hundreds of Gabonese took to the streets to protest the election results.

All this, makes it immediately and notably different to that of Niger’s coup, occurring only one month prior.

There:

• Niger had a democratically elected government, with 56% support, not a dynasty,

• Niger is significantly more geostrategic to counterbalance regional risks like Islamic Jihadism,

• French & US having direct military presence,

• Niger being a critical partner to Western interests and operations,

• Russia having a largely omnipresence in surrounding nations.

(And likely some other factors l am overlooking, but you get the idea).

The Coup and Its Implications

Amid this political turmoil, military officers announced on state television that they had seized power, placing President Bongo under house arrest. They declared the election results null and void, closed borders, and dissolved state institutions.

General Brice Oligui Nguema, former head of the presidential guard, was appointed as the new leader by unanimous vote among the generals.

(Ie he appointed himself lets be frank).

This swift turn of events marked the eighth military takeover in West and Central Africa since 2020, echoing a dangerous trend of democratic erosion in the region.

As said, the coup in Gabon has distinctive features that set it apart from recent coups in neighbouring countries.

General Nguema, isn’t just the military leader, but also President Bongo's own cousin, adding an intriguing, but frankly unsurprising layer of betrayal to the unfolding drama.

Indeed, this is increasingly looks like a case of kleptocracy.

And therefore, little actual economic prosperity or greater political participation/representation for the Gabonese people.

Economic/Market Aspects

Economic implications rippled through Gabon and beyond in the wake of the coup.

Gabon, an oil producer with daily production of ~200,000 barrels, saw its international bonds and shares of foreign companies operating within its borders tumble.

Dollar-denominated bonds due 2025 + 2031 recorded major declines, making them the worst-performing among emerging-market peers.

France's Eramet, a major player in Gabon's manganese sector, temporarily halted its operations. This move highlighted the vulnerability of international companies to political instability in resource-rich African nations.

Gabon's importance in the production of manganese, a crucial component for steel production, adds another layer of complexity to the economic fallout.

While Gabon may not be a major player in global oil markets, its coup-induced disruptions underscore the vulnerabilities of countries dependent on natural resource exports.

International investors are likely to view the region with increased caution, potentially impacting foreign direct investment (FDI), which spills into other areas as investors become largely uncomfortable with the whole subregion.

World Reactions

The ‘international community’ reacted swiftly and divergently to the Gabon coup, underscoring the complexity of addressing such crises.

Here is a spectrum:

• France: with its close economic, diplomatic, and military ties to Gabon, promptly condemned the coup. French government spokesman Olivier Veran emphasised the importance of respecting the election's outcome.

• US: The United States expressed deep concern about the coup and affirmed its commitment to supporting democratic ideals in Africa. They closely monitored the situation, suggesting their intention to engage with the evolving crisis, though other than strong words remains unlikely.

• EU: Josep Borrell voiced concern about the situation in Gabon and announced that EU ministers would discuss it in the coming weeks. The EU's stance indicated the significance of addressing it...whatever that meant.

• African Union: The African Union's Moussa Faki Mahamat condemned the coup attempt and called on security forces to return to "democratic constitutional order." He also urged them to guarantee the safety of President Bongo and his government.

• China: China, a growing presence in African affairs, closely monitored developments in Gabon and called for the restoration of normalcy, national peace, stability, and overall development.

• Nigeria: Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu expressed deep concern about the coup's impact on socio-political stability in Gabon. Nigeria, as a regional power, signaled its awareness of the coup's broader implications.

• Commonwealth of Nations: The Commonwealth Secretary-General, Patricia Scotland, denounced the coup attempt as an "illegal takeover of power."

• Russia: Russia expressed concern about the situation in Gabon and hoped for swift stabilisation - quite different to that of Niger’s coup.

• Spain: Spain, with peacekeeping missions in Africa, expressed concern and suggested it would evaluate its missions in light of the recent coups in Niger and Gabon.

• Egypt: Egypt closely monitored developments in Gabon and urged all parties to prioritize the national interest and the safety of the Gabonese people.

• UN: UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the coup attempt, emphasizing his strong opposition to military coups as a means to resolve post-electoral crises. He called for the restoration of constitutional order.

Possibly more Coups?

The Gabon coup fits within a broader trend of military power grabs in the Sahel region.

Since 2020, the region has witnessed nine such coups, a significant increase compared to past decades. Though again, it's crucial to understand that not all coups are the same, and their drivers vary.

In countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, the coups were largely driven by frustration over deteriorating security situations.

The presence of Russian-linked Wagner forces in these nations further complicated the dynamics.

Western military aid, intended to bolster security, may have inadvertently contributed to the coup climate by strengthening national militaries relative to other governmental institutions.

Namely, they became too reliant.

In contrast, the coups in Gabon and Guinea were responses to what some term a "democratic deficit."

Both countries experienced manipulated elections, internet shutdowns, and curfews, leading to frustration among citizens.

The global reactions to these coups have varied widely, from the African Union's reluctance to label some as coups to ECOWAS' threat of military intervention in Niger.

The ferocity of these reactions may reflect a growing sentiment that democratic backsliding and military takeovers cannot be tolerated indefinitely.

Though given how ECOWAS made ultimatums only to let them pass and still remain inactive, poses the question on the propensity for them to follow through.

The formula for a successful coup often involves arresting incumbent presidents, declaring a "transition period" to civilian rule, and consolidating power to control future elections.

However, history shows that they never really intend to relinquish power, and if it ever gets too close in the ‘transition’ they’ll quite quickly relent.

Takeaway

The Gabon coup represents another disconcerting episode in Africa's struggle for democratic governance.

But then again, is that what is even desired? Plenty of Africans dont seem to what it while others say they do.

But what is clear, is that African’s across the country need to be able to choose for themselves. And without the input or dictation from foreign voices.