China's Protests - What should we make of them?
Its too early to make sweeping claims. Yet its clear this is one of toughest tests to face President Xi as leader.
Since the weekend, China has experienced intense, notable, and relatively uncommon protests, as citizens across the country take to the streets to decry the long-standing 'zero-covid' policies.
Indeed, among many factors that make the protests - also known as the 'Whitepaper' / 'Blankpaper' revolutions (a term we'll address below too) - is how much footage is being made public. Or at least heavily shared on social media.
Disclaimer: Remember, these events are unfolding in real-time and inevitably its impossible to have an exhaustive list of every factor. This backgrounder is intended to provide clarity - not claim it accounts for every single detail.
What triggered them?
Firstly, its important to note that frustrations and grievances have been bubbling under the surface for a long time.
Specifically, they concern the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) zero-covid policy which has remained in force largely across the country. 2 years on, China is the only country to still be implementing such a policy.
However, what triggered these particular protests, was the death of 10 inhabitants of an apartment block in Urumqi - the capital of the Xinjiang Province, due to a fire.
(Xinjiang may sound familiar as its the primary region where the oppressed Uyghur ethnic group resides).
Essentially, it was local, restrictive zero-covid policies that prevented the residents to escape.
That said, this didn't immediately result in nationwide and violent protests.
No, initially people turned out in large numbers to share condolences, hold vigils, and broadly in solidarity for those lost.
However, the last thing you want - especially as a centralized regime seeking to exert absolute control and prevent the continued spread of a deadly virus - is large numbers of people gathering together and not practicing isolation or social distancing.
Therefore, as law enforcement and local authorities tried to clamp down on movements, people resisted. Which, in turn, led to more clamping down, and so more civil disobedience (at least in the eyes of the CCP).
How have the protests expanded?
Now, remember, there is no linear path in how protests develop, intensify and expand.
Often they require a trigger mechanism, usually localized, and then if conditions are right, or an underlying, longstanding, associated grievance already exists, this can pave the way for protests to expand quickly.
In this case, the loss of 10 people was the 'straw that broke the camel's back', unleashing a nationwide set of pent-up rage over policies that many people believe should have been lifted weeks, if not months ago.
Despite the protests being largely uncoordinated, they spread exceptionally fast, quickly reaching Beijing, Shanghai and others driven by the use of social media, particularly Telegram, Twitter, and others - you know, the usual suspects, to spread awareness.
Scenes and footage have been chaotic, with civilians fighting with 'officials' or law enforcement, while others have remained defiant but peaceful.
Slogans and chants have varied too, with many statements such as, 'end the lockdown' or 'l want freedom'.
However, interestingly, others have included, 'down with President Xi' or 'down with the CCP'.
This highlights the classic patterns, where people will seek to leverage the publicity and chaos of protests to get their own agendas or narratives amplified.
Could these protests become 'a Tiananmen Square'?
Simply? Unlikely.
That's not to say its impossible, but its more improbable. For the predominant reason, that the primary demand from protestors and motivation for doing so, is to see the zero-covid restrictions.
While some may desire more freedom, more democratic or at least less authoritative ruling, at least on the face of it, they don't reflect the majority.
Moreover, even if this were hypothetically the case, it would be one hell of a task to usurp and topple the CCP.
Just look at what continues to be ongoing in Iran, and you get the sense of what it would really take to enforceably enact regime change.
Similarly, we have yet to see the introduction of the Chinese Army - the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Partially because these protests are yet to reach that level, but mainly because its just too early, and so the PLA won't be called in unless law enforcement can't contain or suppress the resistance.
For context, the events in 1989 over Tiananmen Square lasted several weeks, resulting in the June Fourth Massacre, where the CCP imposed martial law and the PLA fired upon protestors and the infamous tank photo emerged.
Tiananmen Square saw 100-1000s of people killed and wounded, which is nowhere near where these protests are currently.
That's not to say that they couldn't continue and magnify - like in Iran. More that its unlikely and there lacks an appetite for regime change - unlike in Iran.
Do they have any impact on foreign policy?
Given this is a geopolitical and foreign policy-oriented page, unsurprisingly it would feel inadequate if l didn't mention it.
There are, at least for now, limited implications this will have on China's foreign policy or external activities and behavior.
Its first and foremost an interior affair, that the CCP will want to resolve swiftly.
That said, those of you who have listened to me for a while will know how geopolitics/international relations is as much about optics as it is about strategy and policy sometimes.
Simply, Xi will want to put an end to these protests quickly, or he will risk being perceived by onlookers as struggling to respond, heck even incompetent to some.
Obviously, its not going to mean that suddenly his position as premier is at risk. Simply, the image he has curated till now may become a little tarnished, the longer he takes to respond.
And so, some opportunistic observers may take note, even seeking to exploit what they see as a weakness, at appropriate moments in the future.
Plus, that's not to mention how this domestic headache for Xi, until addressed, will act as a distraction from other external issues, like ongoing Western decoupling, North Korean missile tests, or Taiwanese pushes for autonomy - to name but a few.
I agree, if they grow & continue, we will see an even harsher crackdown by the CCP.. Thx