From Frozen to Fiery: How Syria’s Civil War Erupted Again

The once-dominant forces that helped Assad crush the rebellion are now stretched thin, leaving room for new factions to take control.

The reignited war in Syria marks the latest fallout from the upheaval in the Middle East since Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October 2023.

The ripple effects of this event, coupled with everything else already occurring, have shattered the region’s fragile status quo.

But now, with the rapidly unfolding developments in Syria, they provide further evidence that the Middle East’s interconnected conflicts are intensifying rather than abating.

Watch my breakdown of these developments, what could happen next, and could who benefit most.

How Did Aleppo Fall—Again?

Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, has returned to the spotlight eight years after the Assad regime regained control in 2016.

Back then, Bashar al-Assad relied heavily on Russian airpower and Hezbollah ground forces to consolidate power, ending years of division between rebel and regime-controlled zones.

Since then, Syria’s conflict had largely stagnated, with rebel forces confined to Idlib, adjacent to Aleppo’s governorate.

But that relative stasis has now ended.

Opposition fighters, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched an unexpected offensive, swiftly taking Aleppo and pushing towards Hama. This success has raised significant questions about the resilience of Assad’s forces.

The armed opposition seems to have seized the moment, exploiting weaknesses in Assad’s key allies—Russia, heavily preoccupied in Ukraine, and Hezbollah, weakened by Israeli attacks.

What Led to the Opposition’s Resurgence?

The rebel coalition’s gains are rooted in the fractured state of Assad’s alliances.

Iran’s "axis of resistance," including Hezbollah, has suffered from Israel’s sustained military campaigns. Meanwhile, Russian resources are spread thin, with much of Moscow’s military power allocated to Ukraine.

Although Russia retains a presence in Syria, including air assets and soldiers stationed across 20 bases, it lacks the capacity for a large-scale intervention akin to its decisive 2015 campaign.

HTS has capitalised on this vacuum. Once tied to al-Qaeda as Jabhat al-Nusra, the group has rebranded itself, distancing from jihadist rhetoric to appeal to broader Syrian opposition groups.

Despite this repositioning, HTS remains a UN-designated terrorist organisation, and scepticism about its long-term objectives persists.

What’s Happening in Damascus?

Aleppo’s fall has fuelled speculation about the stability of Assad’s regime.

Unverified reports suggest internal strife in Damascus, with rumours ranging from clashes between military factions to unrest in the presidential palace.

While these accounts likely contain elements of disinformation, they underscore the regime’s precarious position. Assad’s grip on power, once cemented by Russian and Iranian backing, now appears increasingly tenuous.

Can Rebels Hold Their Gains?

HTS’s control of Aleppo is a remarkable development, but whether the rebels can consolidate and expand remains uncertain.

The regime is expected to respond with airstrikes, leveraging its remaining Russian support.

Yet, without a robust ground presence, reclaiming lost territory will be challenging. The rebels, lacking an air force, may struggle to hold their gains if Assad’s forces regroup and counterattack.

Reports of captured military supplies, including helicopters, suggest the rebels have bolstered their capabilities. However, without unified leadership and sustained external support, their long-term prospects are fragile.

The fragmented nature of the opposition, spanning extremists, Turkey-backed militias, and Kurdish factions, complicates the path forward.

The Role of External Powers: What’s Next?

Russia

Russia remains committed to maintaining its influence in Syria but faces significant constraints. Moscow’s airstrikes in recent days demonstrate a willingness to assist Assad, yet it lacks the ground resources needed to replicate its 2015 success.

Whether Putin will double down on defending Assad or prioritise broader regional stability will still remain a relatively open question. Although, simultaneously with the intensification of cross-border conflict with Kyiv, it seems unlikely the Kremlin will be willing to divert attention or assets from its strategic priority.

Iran

Tehran’s investment in Syria as a strategic hub for Hezbollah is now under threat. Iranian officials have prioritised assessing the situation, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visiting Damascus instead of Ankara for scheduled talks.

Iran’s diminished capacity to project power across Syria could further erode Assad’s support base. Indeed, some strongly believe that Tehran’s ability to effectively project deterrence have significantly diminished in light of its limited responses to Israel or come to the aid of its flagship proxy, Hezbollah.

Turkey

Turkey, a major player in Syria, has been reassessing its strategy. Ankara’s recent efforts to normalise ties with Assad may shift if Erdogan perceives an opportunity to back a successor government.

A renewed Turkish push could bolster rebel groups, particularly those aligned with Islamist factions, while complicating relations with Arab states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who favour Assad’s survival.

Israel

For Israel, weakening the Iran-Syria axis remains a strategic priority. While Assad’s downfall could disrupt Hezbollah’s weapons supply, the prospect of Turkish-backed Islamist groups gaining power in Syria presents new challenges for Israeli security.

Israel is likely to watch these developments closely, adjusting its strategy to counter emerging threats, although given its continued engagement in Lebanon despite the fragile ceasefire, let alone Gaza, it seems improbable Israel would seek to get embroiled in another front.

United States

With 900 troops stationed in northeastern Syria, the US primarily focuses on containing the remnants of ISIS. However, the presence of extremist elements within the rebellion may push Washington to re-evaluate its mission.

The Biden administration’s policy remains cautious, but any shifts under a new administration could reshape America’s role in Syria’s conflict.

A War Without End?

The renewed fighting highlights the enduring fragility of Syria’s landscape. More than a decade of conflict has left the country deeply divided, with no clear path to resolution.

The failure to implement the 2015 UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which envisioned a political transition and free elections, underscores the international community’s inability to bring about lasting peace.

For now, Syria’s future hangs in the balance. Assad’s regime faces perhaps its greatest threat since the early years of the civil war, but the fragmented nature of the opposition and the competing interests of external powers mean that the road ahead is anything but clear.