Geopolitical Highlights - 26/02-03/03, 2023
This week there are the elections in Nigeria, the Russo-Ukraine surpasses 1 year, Belarus's Lukashenko visits China, and Germany's Scholz visits India.
Greetings!
Welcome to this weekly summary of some Geopolitical Highlights to monitor.
As always this isn’t exhaustive, so drop a comment with any any l might have missed.
And before continuing on, check out the latest interview l had on my YouTube Channel:
This time l spoke with Luke, a fellow YouTuber about the role of language in the war and the Russo-Ukrainian relationship.
Despite being half Russian there is a lot l didn’t know about how different they are.
More broadly, my goal is to highlight the work of others that are outside of policymaking or academia, because its clear many independent creators produce inspiring work as informative and accurate as MSM or similar.
Its worth a watch!
Nigeria’s election
Unquestionably, the main event this week is the Nigerian elections.
18 candidates, 3 frontrunners, and a surprise the incumbent is not seeking re-election.
220 million people heading to the polls makes it one of the largest too, and in a place that has been the largest economy.
Nigeria has a lot to tackle too among them:
high poverty rates
massive systemic corruption
Boko Haram insurgency in the North
ongoing climate and environmental risks.
The 3 main frontrunners to replace Muhammadu Buhari are:
Bola Ahmed Tinubu: candidate from Buhari’s party - All Progressive Party. He was a governor of Lagos State and wants to make Nigeria ‘a nation of creators, not just consumers’.
Atiku Abubakar: the main opposition leader - People’s Democratic Party. He was also former vice president, and want to push for reducing the governmental size.
Peter Obi: a 3rd-party, independent candidate, who has garnered a lot of support among younger populations through effective use of social media, and prioritizing corruption.
Obi also comes from the ethnic Igbo group, and representing a more inclusive campaign than the others who many associate with the political elite. However, others, including his opponents brand him a populist.
Any candidate must get 25% in 2/3 of regions around Nigeria or it goes to a second round.
And by democratic standing, Nigeria is young - it was only formed in 1999.
Either way, questions always arise concerning the legitimacy in elections - this was recently the case with Kenya's, which were largely seen to be a success and solid example for other states in the Horn.
So its worth noting, how Nigeria’s goes will be being watched by fellow states in the West of Africa / Sahel - especially given the destabilization in Mali, Burkina Faso and others recently too.
But Nigeria has been active in supporting democratization, including via the African Union or ECOWAS (the West African economic bloc).
Watch this space, and how the globe responds.
I will be hosting events on it on Twitter Spaces: https://twitter.com/PKurzin next week as well to make sense of the results.
Russo-Ukraine War 1-year Anniversary
This highlight shouldn’t come as any surprise.
The following week will represent over a year of heinous war occurring in Ukraine and the consequences that have been indescribable.
For the global economy, great power and global geopolitics, but most of all the citizens and people of Ukraine.
At this time in 2022, many felt very sad for the assumed incoming dominance of Russia, and the loss of a young, energised democracy…
Yet here we are.
A bloody war, but equally, an inspiring case of David vs Goliath and Ukrainians relentlessly unwilling to just roll over.
It has meant a sizeable reconsideration of Russia as a military power, but also how China, India and many other broader relations outside the West are being reshaped.
The war has raised a lot of reflections about US leadership, or the relevance of NATO, and the capacity of the West to be united.
It has highlighted the gross underfunding of militaries, especially in Europe.
And it has remined us that the possibility of large-scale, conventional kinetic war, including a nuclear, great power, is very much a reality.
And just how lucky we have been not to witness this more - especially, again in Europe, given its history over centuries.
It has shown how countries will very much not just follow what the US or West dictates, and in some cases, actively believe both sides are at fault, not merely Russia.
The votes at the UN show many countries symbolically condemn Russia.
But when it comes to tangible action or changes to policy there are few that follow through.
As we enter the second year, there will be renewed assertion for peace talks, for at least a form of ceasefire.
Many Western populations still support aiding Ukraine, especially if it means rendering Russian military threats obsolete.
However, if there is a opportunity to see a reduction in energy prices and the cost of living because a truce is established, then that wouldn’t be surprising to see either.
At the same time, provisions to Ukraine will continue; the first Leopards arriving soon, among more aid, ammunitions and more.
But some criticise the incrementalism of the supplies as it slows any actual delivery and so, any progress being made on the battlefield.
The recent activities around China, remarks among many at the Munich Security Conference, and the fact South Africa is doing military exercises with Russia is reflective of the tectonic shifts occurring.
A lot can happen around anniversaries, but as to how much of it actually means anything and which direction things take can vary significantly.
Lukashenko visits China
Interestingly, the Belarus despot Lukashenko will visit China on a state visit on Feb 28th.
China’s foreign ministry stated they will welcome the despot from Feb 28 to March 2 and to build on the ‘all weather’ strategic partnership they made last year too.
Belarus has let Russia use it as a backyard for entering Ukraine and store weapons including nuclear ones.
China made clear it wants to support Belarus’s national stability and opposing ‘external forces’ - though how they would do that isn’t very clear.
Be also curious to see if this was not something Russia was overly keen about, if China suddenly got too comfortable and forthright in what Russia considers its natural area of undisputed control.
While its not clear what will be delivered from this visit, if anything at all, its worth noting, especially how much China has been in the spotlight this week.
Scholz in India
Germany’s Scholz is and will be on a trip to India to ‘deepen ties’.
It will be revealing to see how he tries to get a shift from India’s impressively sustained neutral stance on Ukraine - much in keeping with its strategic autonomous approach.
Russia being a major arms and oil supplier has added to India’s neutrality too.
Indeed, Germany’s ambassador acknowledged this - being quite understanding in his framing.
But India has also denounced Western hypocrisy, given how many interventions they have made globally.
Yet, Germany could be a major source of new arms with a possible deal to supply 6 new submarines under discussion.
Aside from Ukraine is the push for an India-EU trade deal and investment protection agreement.
But others have suggested the two are still quite far apart - only made worse by Ukraine and variances in positions on that.
But this is Scholz’s first visit to India, having met Modi four times since he took office and there remains optimism.
So keep this in mind.
Thats all for this week!
Remember to check out the podcast if you haven’t:
Most of all LEAVE A REVIEW!
I can’t underline how much it helps build the podcast and increase its visibility to new audiences.
And, lastly, if you are able and willing to chip to my Patreon, which allows me to:
investment in better equipment to improve quality,
cover monthly/annual subscriptions for software used,
use platforms that allow me to find new, dynamic guests for content,
outsource some work to others to streamline production.
In the meantime, appreciate you reading and share this with others you think will enjoy it!
Adios!