Geopolitical Outlooks, Week Feb 19th
We see the Munich Security Conference, Blinken visits Poland, Israel's continued Judicial reforms, and more.
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Now as for this week.
Munich Security Conference (MSC)
Most crucial this week and weekend is the MSC, where delegates from around the world, including governments and non-governmental officials convene.
Its notable for a few reasons, but perhaps for where Putin spoke in 2007 in such a way that made people feel very concerned about his foreign policy…only for him to invade Georgia in 2008 and what many to see a seismic shift in his approach.
Notably too, Russia is not present - no officials/representatives are present this year.
Khodorkovsky, chess champ Kasparov, and wife of Alexei Navalny are there, but l largely see this as symbolic more than anything.
Organizers still want to use this event to stimulate responses to ‘autocratic revisionism’ but what the means in terms in policy remains allusive.
The meeting between US Sec of State Blinken and China’s foreign minister Wang Yi will be a highlight, as is just observing how non-West states engage with Western ones broadly.
All in all, this will be one event with many repercussions, be it from there or some time after.
Biden visits Poland
US President Biden will be in Poland on Feb 20th - Presidents Day in the US.
He’ll meet Poland’s leader, looking at bilateral relations but also the Ukraine and sustained support from NATO.
Poland has been one of the biggest supporters, militarily, economically, and humanitarian-wise of any country.
Recall Biden was there last year in March/April so its a clear priority for the US camp when it comes to US interests in Europe.
Its to commemorate when Putin launched his full-scale invasion and the closest Biden can get to Ukraine without risking himself / what his security staff would allow.
Expect a quick, but crowd-rising event, with Biden giving a rousing speech, and call for more ‘deliverables’ - ie products that are policy and material, not merely words.
And l know what l said about getting to Ukraine, but there is some notion he may visit, though announcing it wont happen for security reasons obviously.
Zelensky frequently does the rounds to Western allies, but the risks for a US President to visit the state under major war are far different.
This trip could also be a way to reduce/address the pressure of Ukraine to obtain jets and Biden to underline that now isnt the time for them, if at all.
Watch this space.
Israel’s judicial ‘reforms’
Ongoing in Israel are judicial reforms driven by the, yet another, government, this time based on a far right coalition.
Benjamin Netanyahu ‘Bibi’ is back…again.
Yet, this time he comes across as seemingly less extreme next to the others he has surrounded himself with - including one party which actively seeks to remove any and all presence of Palestine’s territories.
Bibi wants to remove checks and balances on the ruling party and leader - the courts are the only counterbalance.
This would enable a simple majority in parliament to override the Supreme Court.
So bye-bye balanced and fair political systems, not being abused by others and would threaten judicial oversight of administrative decisions including ministerial appointments.
Its also likely to try and mitigate any risks to Bibi, who is currently under trial. So arguably, he wants to pre-eminently be able to appeal to the Supreme Court who then be overruled by parliament…
Ie he avoids being found guilty and gets off scot-free.
Israeli’s are happy either - 100,000 protested in recent weeks in 2023 and its not something being ignored.
Indeed, one of latest guests, Nadav Eyal spoke exactly to this and more. Watch the interview here.
We also go into the recent ‘most likely’ Israeli strikes in Iran against a military facility, and broader Middle East dynamics.
African Union (AU) Summit 2023
This years AU summit will take place in Ethiopia which in itself is significant.
Simply because this has been the hub of the world’s deadliest war since Nov 2020.
Ukraine has been the largest in global impact, but by causalities, its the Ethiopian.
The fact there has been the ceasefire reached in the fall of 2022 and resulted in the AU hosting its continental summit is major - hopefully an optimistic boost to African geopolitics.
This years theme is:
‘Acceleration of the African Continental Free Trade Area Implementation’
So its clear the AU has done any better at making catchy, even just sensible titles…like seriously that title is rather absurd.
Clearly, though the AU is driving the notion of African being more assertive and driving African interests more explicitly than before.
I feel that again the Ukraine War has intensified this too.
Cast your mind back to Feb 2022 and the statements some made at the UN about hypocrisy and more.
Its clear many African countries feel the world has disproportionately focused on the war in Europe and that while they may not want to seem callous, it isnt a priority for them.
They feel they need to focus on their issues and interests, which this summit reflects.
Interestingly too, a senior Israeli diplomat was ejected over a accreditation dispute - yet another illustration of many African nations growing willingness to push their own affairs.
So, if you are curious about the African dynamic - keep an eye on this.
Thanks for tuning in!
Thats it for this week.
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