Geopolitical Weekly Forecast - 04/06/23 (And a Brief Update)
This week, Asia's Shangri-La Dialogue, Blinken meets the new Finnish govt, and NATO responds to Kosovo tensions. Plus an life update.
Greetings!
Its been a hot minute, and based on a few reasons, which you can find out at the end of this newsletter.
But, as per previous updates, here is a weekly snapshot of what to watch this coming week in the world of geopolitics and foreign affairs.
Any feedback or suggestions of what you’d like to see that is mighty welcome.
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1. Shangri-La Dialogue
Friday, 9th June will see the pre-eminent security-related conference occurring in Singapore.
Leaders like Japan’s Kishida and the newly elected Australian Prime Minister will be in attendance.
Not to mention Ukraine’s Zelensky.
Aside from the Ukraine, which Zelensky will work hard to keep in the spotlight, China, and its overarching belligerency, that many states feel it continues to do, and if not, intensifying.
Shangri-La Dialogue is essentially like the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Feb, and was notable because Blinken bluntly said that the US thought China was supplying weapons to Russia.
Over 600 delegations from 50+ countries to be precise.
In this Indo-Pacific, eyes will again be on whether the US & China foreign entities actually get together to discuss the ongoing heighten tensions.
Both sides saying they want to be constructive and avert strategic competition, yet continue hurtling in that direction.
It mainly comes to the fact the two just aren’t talking.
Like at all.
And there is hope that, like in the fall where Xi and Biden met in-person, and which, least at the time improved or calmed Sino-US relations, that this could happen again.
There will be plenty on the agenda too:
North Korea’s launches
Spill-overs from Pakistan’s instabilities
The shifts in meetings like the AUKUS deal & the QUAD
Needless to say, it could be once again a place for many fireworks.
But hopefully, very little to report. Ideally nothing.
2. Blinken to Finland.
Over the past days, Blinken has been on a whirlwind tour of different locations, particularly pertaining to the Baltics and Nordic states.
This comes in the run-up to the NATO Summit being held in Vilnius, Lithuania, and where Finland will be officially welcomed as the 31st member.
The recent shift in the Finnish government at such a pivotal time means the need for ‘side-line’ meetings, to streamline and familiarise the proceedings at the largest security coalition meeting.
The significance of this is something l covered in a recent talk on the YouTube Channel and where we talk Poland’s growing assertion in European security.
Indeed, this occurred in the form of a unofficial meeting in Norway, between senior foreign entities on Blinken’s trip.
Particularly, because Norway follows a unique structure - namely that it doesn’t allow foreign troops or nuclear weaponry within its territory/borders.
Then there is the added dynamic of the Turkish election, and that Erdogan retained power.
Blinken’s trip will be as much about courting (or possibly coercing) Erdogan into no longer obstructing Sweden’s ascension into NATO, as it will be about familiarizing Finland.
And this also comes when there is growing rhetoric around fast-tracking Ukraine into NATO, something varies a lot between members.
This is a tough one, but its clear that Ukraine would require a sizeably larger amount of restructuring and modernizing relative to Finland which has significant levels of interoperability for years.
Simultaneously, while this happens, discussions will be occurring in Moldova about advancing theirs and de-facto(ly), Ukraine’s EU membership.
Both these are irksome to Russia, so these coming weeks will be very volatile. So watch for a flurry diplomatic statements, posturing and more.
3. Kosovo-Serbia tensions
Lastly, in the list of three for this week, relates to the heighten tensions around Kosovo, NATO and Serbia.
In response to the ongoing tensions, NATO’s KFOR mission has chosen to send additional troops and supplies to this subregion of the Balkans by nearly 20%.
From 3800 to 4500+.
This comes after 30 personnel were injured during clashes with ethnic Serbian protestors.
700 forces means an ‘additional battalion of reserve forces on high readiness’ to quote the NATO Secretary himself.
These protests grew from ethnic conflicts - symbolic of the region and the devastating Yugoslav Wars - leading to police responses and Serbia putting their military on the highest state of alert.
Next to the NATO response, the EU’s chief diplomat, Josep Borrell, has been pushing for peace, and urging avoiding ‘further unilateral action’.
Time will tell, how this significant upscaling of NATO presence, will play out in the coming weeks.
We will be hosting a separate podcast on this, so either follow it on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen OR Subscribe on YT.
Here is a previous talk we had about the region as a whole.
Kosovo remains a country unrecognised by a sizeable part of the international community, and given it involves Serbia - the historical ally of Russia…
Russia will, and has already been, making noise about the events on the the international stage, notably the UN.
Unsurprisingly, to raise and bolster its narrative of how the fact NATO is sending in additional troops to quell peaceful protests shows it is an aggressive entity.
Lets hope things do calm as they have in other flare ups.
4. A Life Update
Lastly, not a geopolitical news but a personal one.
I wanted to simply apologise for being poor and inconsistent with my posting this year.
It is, frankly, bloody difficult, trying to balance the multitude of different platforms, systems, and daily life.
Indeed, trying to manage a podcast, with separate video and audio formats, a YouTube channel itself, as well as hosting regular Twitterspaces, and a Substack newsletter, is not something l am a natural at.
I would like to outsource some parts of the production for instance, but am not yet in the position to do so.
Also, l haven’t yet found a rhythm that l am satisfied with, but l do not feel content with not giving back to all of those of you who do kindly support me, in whatever way that is.
As the videos above illustrate, l have been very active, but not enough on here, and that is something that l will be rectifying!
As always, if you are interested in supporting the show - please drop me a line. It could be as simple as helping market episodes.
Or sharing and forwarding this email ;)
That is all for this week.
Until next time!