Wargaming Taiwan: These Disastrous US Assumptions on China Are Risking A Global War
I sat down with USAF Brigadier General Robert Spalding to simulate different war scenarios over Taiwan, the Chinese, and potential US response.
Talk around Taiwan and any potential invasion or war never cease.
But what gets tougher is whether it would be defendable - what it would look from the Chinese end, let alone any US/Western response.
That’s where wargaming comes in.
Though l dont like that term much - preferring war simulations - but they are crucial to better forecast operations, strategy, tactics, psychology etc.
Hence, this is what l did with Gen Spalding, part 2 in a two-part series, the first on Ukraine and its jet capacities.
This was one of my favourite talks - being able to go toe-to-toe with a senior US military official and challenging his presuppositions on this issue.
I highly encourage you to check it since we did some considerable deep dives with data, facts, and logic.
Below is a little context to complement the video podcast.
Taiwan's Vulnerability:
Recent confidential details from Pentagon assessments have cast a stark spotlight on Taiwan's possible Achilles' heel in defence.
Specifically lingering questions around the reliability of Taiwanese air defencee systems in detecting missile launches.
Equally disconcerting are concerns surrounding the operational readiness of its aircraft, lending to further uncertainties on its ability to thwart an aerial onslaught.
Escalating Tensions:
The Taiwan Strait never isnt simmering with heightened tensions as China flexes its military muscle.
In 2022, the number of audacious warplane incursions into Taiwan's air defence identification zone (ADIZ) nearly doubled.
China's evolving military tactics, characterised by notable speed in operations and the use of civilian vessels for military exercises, also challenge US intelligence agencies' capabilities to discern or preempt potential threats.
Misrepresenting China:
Others, including the General worry over the lack of understanding the US/the West have for China’s or Xi’s motivations - specifically whether the CCP would ultimately care about Taiwanese citizens.
Or if it would consider them reasonable losses, if it meant the acquisition and reunification of the island.
The extent to which nuclear weapons could still be in play also cant be ignored.
Covert Invasion Concerns:
Fears also loom on whether Beijing could deploy covert stratagems, such as masquerading troops as humanitarian aid workers in the wake of natural disasters—a contemporary twist reminiscent of Russia's ‘little green men’ in Crimea.
This layer adds another unsettling dimension to the geopolitics, with such espionage and deceit blurring the lines of international conventions.
In all this Gen Spalding’s e insights into wargaming Taiwan's defencee, coupled with his compelling analysis of the United States' uphill battle, made for a dynamic conversation.
I highly recommend checking it out above!