Wednesday, December 7th, 2022 was an unexpectedly hectic and tumultuous day in Peru’s 200-year history.

Some are calling the events an attempted coup by now -ousted President Castillo.

But how did we get to this point and what should we do in the regional context?

What’s the context of Castillo’s presidency?

President (Ex now l guess?) Castillo rose to prominence in 2017 as leader of a ‘wildcat strike’ and ran on a weird Marxist-Leninist platform.

Castillo won largely because of a disenfranchised electorate, fed up with the establishment or ‘career politicians’ - reflective of many people in Latin America.

Then he beat a right-wing in the run-off, similar in vibes to what happened in Brazil this autumn, being elected in July 2021 and showing:

This is part of a broader rise of left-leaning (not all necessarily the same extremes) governments that have been elected region-wide.
Known in some circles as pink tides.
With blue tides (the right-wing equivalent, seemingly falling out of favor.

However, since his election, Castillo has faced several efforts to undermine his leadership or even remove him.

One such example was in Oct 2021, when the El Foco website released recordings highlighting leaders of various unions and businesses were planning deliberate strikes in Nov to destabilize Castillo.

Far-right groups including former soldiers have also colluded with political parties, like Popular Renewal or Go on Country - Social Integration Party (yes that’s its name… shocking they didn’t win with branding like that), to try and remove the leftist president.

More specifically, Congress which is heavily right-leaning has tried to impeach Castillo already - you need 87 votes to succeed:

Nov 28th, 2021, saw the first impeach proceeding fail - 76 voted against, compared to 46 in favor and 4 who abstained.
March 28th, 2022, saw the second fail too, though it was closer - 55 in favor, 54 against, but 19 abstentions.
By Dec 2022, Congress was gearing up for a third attempt - based on the fact Castillo was involved in 6 separate criminal investigations.

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Moreover, Castillo had already garnered huge unpopularity among Peruvians with multiple protests held against him.

So, it was this oncoming third impeachment attempt that triggered the events of Dec 7th.

So what happened in the attempted dissolution/coup?

Essentially, Congress tried to file a motion of censure (no-confidence) against Castillo because of his ‘permanent moral incapacity.’

This was based on a 376-page complaint about kickbacks for infrastructure deals and sold-off government jobs to bidders.

This meant that this third, intended impeachment was likely to succeed.

And so before Congress could gather to undertake this, Castillo announced its dissolution and enacted a curfew, stating:

temporarily dissolve the Congress of the Republic and establish an exceptional emergency government’ due to 'breaking ‘the balance of powers and the rule of law to establish a congressional dictatorship’.

Castillo also claimed the Constitutional Court was in on it AND lashed out at the media opposing or criticizing him.

He intended to rule by decree until new elections.

How did things escalate?

What followed was a bit of a political hellscape.

Less than 10 minutes after Castillo’s remarks, ministers started resigning, including the PM, Minister of Labor, Foreign Relations, and Justice.

Even Peru’s UN permanent representative, all the way in NYC resigned, and the attorney general who Castillo was a client, dropped him…

While some had understood Castillo’s sentiments that it felt like a witch-hunt was being conducted against him, his dramatic and unexpected actions alienated his own allies.

Indeed, Congress - very much undissolved, voted 101-6 to impeach Castillo and finalized the ousting of him for initiating this constitutional crisis.

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But that was not the end of it.

Castillo then seemingly played cat-and-mouse, with rumors circulating he was seeking asylum at the Mexican Embassy in Lima.

It was also rejected by the US embassy and military leadership.

Where are we now and what’s the political risk?

Events on Dec 7th moved fast and resulted in Castillo’s arrest, though his supporters did clash with police in Lima.

However, what was a significant constitutional and political risk in the country and region, seems to have largely subsided.

Now, Castillo’s vice president, Dina Boluarte, was sworn in. She wasn’t well known prior to running with Castillo:

60 years old, Boluarte is Peru’s first female leader,
she was also the minister for development & social inclusion,
she’s a lawyer with an advanced degree and experience working in civil issues,
her origins are quite modest and she is fluent in Quechua, an indigenous Andes language.

Even before these events, she had distanced herself from Castillo - including refusing to serve in the cabinet.

Seemingly, therefore, it looks like a positive turnout for these significant developments and that the rule of law has prevailed.

Certainly, Boluarte seems to intend to stick to that which should reassure many of the stability of the country, including for business interests and operations.

That said, these events, as swift and sudden as they were, will have shocked many, including some Peruvians who may have already been skeptical of the left.

In other words, some of the electorates may ultimately have felt a need to shift away and more towards the center, or even further right since, for many, Congress did act proportionately.

It will be up to Boluarte, therefore, to prove she, as well as the left as an entity, can be entrusted with the leadership of Peru before elections in 2026.

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